For 2026 planning, the best benchmark approach is to use the freshest reputable data currently published and then translate it into decisions. The biggest signal comes from the National Retail Federation and Happy Returns 2025 Retail Returns Landscape, published on October 15, 2025. That report projected that 19.3% of online sales would be returned in 2025, while total retail returns across the industry would reach $849.9 billion.
What counts as a useful benchmark in 2026?
A useful benchmark is not just one headline percentage. Merchants need at least four numbers in mind:
- Online return rate: NRF and Happy Returns projected 19.3% of online sales returned in 2025.
- Overall retail return rate: NRF also said 15.8% of annual retail sales would be returned in 2025.
- Return fraud exposure: Appriss and Deloitte said fraudulent returns and claims caused $103 billion in losses in 2024, with 15.14% of all returns deemed fraudulent.
- Processing cost: Shopify notes that return processing can consume 20% to 65% of an item’s original value depending on the case.
Why the online benchmark matters more than the blended retail average
Many merchants still quote blended retail return figures. That can hide the actual ecommerce problem. If you operate online-first, the online benchmark is more relevant than the total retail benchmark because it reflects the higher uncertainty, fit risk, bracketing, and shipping friction that digital storefronts create.
What Shopify-specific operators should notice
Shopify’s 2025 returns guidance points to several operational drivers that merchants should treat seriously. Shopify says 52% of returns are caused by sizing issues, 39% of online shoppers return products because they do not look like the image, and many retailers have started charging for returns or pushing harder into exchanges, credit, and returnless or return-light alternatives.
Why fraud belongs in the same planning sheet
Appriss’ current published data makes this hard to ignore. Its December 30, 2024 annual research release says return and claims fraud drove $103 billion in retailer losses in 2024. That matters because a merchant cannot safely optimize for return reduction without also deciding how to verify customers, review risky sessions, and separate honest preference returns from higher-risk claims.
How to use these benchmarks in practice
- Benchmark your own store by category, not just in aggregate.
- Separate preference returns from defect and fulfillment returns.
- Track the total cost per return, not only refund value.
- Model how much value could be retained if eligible low-value returns were resolved before the RMA.
What merchants should do with these numbers
Benchmarks do not fix the workflow by themselves. They tell you whether your store is leaving recoverable margin on the table. The next question is operational: where can return intent be verified, reasoned about, and routed before reverse logistics starts?